The Hillary Disconnect
At the risk of being accused of beating up on a woman, I just want to point out some quotes from Hillary and counter them with the facts. I will try to be gentle, I promise.
These are quotes that she has made in the past week to explain why she is staying in the race and why she thinks she has a case to become the nominee — even though the math is against her.
If we had same rules as the Republicans, I would be the nominee right now”
If my Aunt had balls, she’d be my Uncle. If she had wheels, she’d be a teacart.
The fact is, we don’t have the same rules as the Republicans. These are the rules that have been in place since the 1980s, and could have been changed or amended at any time by the Clinton loyalists that dominate both the DNC and the DLC. Besides, these particular rules, including the ones that are currently blocking Michigan and Florida from seating delegates were agreed on by Clinton and every other Candidate that was running during the primary election season.
The states that Ive won total 300 electoral votes. The question is who can win 270 electoral votes? My opponent has won states totaling 217 electoral votes.
Just because a candidate wins or loses in a state during the primary, doesn’t mean that he or she is going to win or lose it during the general election. They could win the majority of Democrats in the Primary only to lose that state to the majority of people in the General Election.
John Kerry won West Virginia during the primary and lost it 60/40 in the General Election.
Obama might have lost it by a big margin to Hillary, but it doesn’t necessarily mean he is going to lose it to McCain in the General. It also doesn’t mean that Hillary won’t lose it in the General if she becomes the nominee.
While West Virginia might have gone for the Democrat that wins the election in the past, doesn’t necessarily mean that a Democrat has to win West Virginia to win the election. Trends have been known to be broken.
It is a strawman argument that really means nothing.
Many of his votes and delegates come from caucus states which have a relatively low turnouts.
This is a disingenuous claim since each caucus state has reported record numbers of people attending caucuses this time around. Here in Washington, we had reports of overflow capacities for the caucuses.
While there is no real way to tell exactly how many people participated since total counts aren’t recorded, it doesn’t mean that the numbers aren’t representative for the state.
Right now more people have voted for me than have voted for my opponent”
Now IF you count Florida and Michigan, she does lead Obama by fewer than 5000 votes. But that’s considering that Obama wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan. We would have to assume that Obama would get less than 5000 votes if his name had been on the ballot in Michigan.
But there is still a problem with her claim. There were no number totals that go into that equation from Iowa, Nevada, or Maine.
But none of that really matters, does it? The Democratic Party doesn’t pick its candidate from the popular vote.
I believe I am the stronger candidate and just today I found some curious support for that position when one of the TV networks released an analysis by, of all people, Karl Rove, saying I was the stronger candidate. And there it is.
Wow, because Karl Rove says she is the better candidate, that is something to pin our hopes on? Pardon me for being just a little bit skeptical.
Republicans have been chomping at the bit to have Hillary be the nominee. They have warehouses full of ammunition to throw at her if she were the nominee. She would be the number one campaign money maker for the Republican Party. People who would normally stay at home with a McCain ticket would come out in huge numbers to vote against Hillary.
I heard Rachael Maddow today talk about the possibility of Obama making a deal with Hillary to nominate her to the Supreme Court’s first opening. Her guest immediately came up with the reason why that would be a bad idea: Republicans would come out of the wood work to vote against anyone who might even think about doing that.
Do you see the strategy here? Republicans are dying right now under the prospect of Obama becoming the nominee. They are scared shitless. They won’t come out and say it, but with Hillary they knew they had a serious chance. With Obama, they don’t have squat to put against him. They saw how the Reverend Wright thing rocked him back on his heels for a moment but he came back to land a few solid blows. They tried to smear him with the Muslim label, and use word association with his middle name.
No serious effect.
The fact is we have to include Michigan and Florida we cannot claim that we have a nominee based on 48 states, particularly two states that are so important for us to win in the fall,
Interestingly enough, in prior primary contests, the nominee was already picked out and annointed by Super Tuesday. All of the states that followed were just an after thought.
Hillary is correct though. Florida and Michigan should be seated at the convention. But they should suffer some kind of penalty for being the renegades, otherwise there would be no incentive for those 48 other states to follow the rules in the future. Even Terry McAuliff said that himself four years ago when faced with the very same prospect.
Florida and Michigan will be seated. But it probably won’t be with the results that Hillary expects or desires. While she is talking about “fair” she fails to see how un-fair it is to Obama because he followed the rules and not only didn’t campaign in either state, he took his name of the ballot in Michigan. On the other hand, Hillary left her name on the ballot in both states, and even went as far to campaign fund raise in six places in Florida a couple of days prior to the election. Obama was still basically an unknown factor and she had just had a lot of face time. It is no wonder she “won” in Florida.
The delegates should be split 50-50 in both states.
Hillary should still continue to run through until the end. After that, she should realize the folly that everyone else sees, and gracefully drops her bid and pledge her support to the winner, Barack Obama. The party has a lot of healing to do, and the sooner it gets started, the sooner we can get to the real business at hand: Kicking McCain’s ass.