Bob Barr has accepted the nomination for the Libertarian party. I'm pretty sure he represents the saner wing of the party, the one that defends individual liberty and the free market, and not the Peikoff branch who thinks we have the right to invade "uncivilized" nations who have not had the fortune to read Atlas Shrugged.
And there goes a good 5%-10% of McCain's base. McCain is not a libertarian by any stretch of the imagination, and a party desperately seeking legitimization is going to vote Barr. So who's left to vote for McCain?
Burned Hillary supporters
Shit, even the fascists aren't going to go for McCain, and he can kiss the right wing Christian vote bye bye as long as Hagee, Parsley and Dobson tell them to stay home.
Oh, sweet November is almost here.
Bob Barr may just pull a few Democratic votes as well. Remember, there are a lot of Paulbots out there who are following him only because he is anti-war. At least a few of them will slide over to the Barr camp because of that.
I covered the Dem castoffs which will mostly be comprised of adrift Hillary also rans.
If McCain is counting on the votes of white suburbanites, he’d better count again. I was out at an event in reliably-Republican and snowflake white DuPage County, IL this weekend and spoke to some of the people there — these former GOP voters loathe Bush and don’t have much use for McCain or any other Republican these days. Pick the issue: gas prices, the economy, the Iraq disaster, the housing collapse, the dollar’s demise, our dismal standing in the world, selling out the middle class for corporate profits, et al — and the GOP is on the wrong end. Some of these folks were pretty bitter about it, too, since they voted for Bush and his conservative compadres in both 2000 and 2004, but no more. Meanwhile, a few had nice things to say about Obama.
No Republican can get elected president without the vote from suburban white areas like DuPage County — it looks like McCain is going to be handed his head in November.
I’m not sure how many ex-Hill voters he’ll get: or McCain. I suspect the most disenfranchised: if they still feel they are by then, will either not vote or do one of the other more Socialist like votes. Now, if we are to believe the statistics, even if Hillary could pull a miracle, there will be somewhere between 20-30% Barack/Hillary supporters who won’t vote for the other one. I suspect those stats aren’t accurate and, even if they are, will alter severely once we get into the General… hopefully in the favor of Dems.
I’m going to post this link in two places. I was writing something like this, though far less “pro-Hillary” in any sense, that I’ll probably dump. Though David and I have some deep disagreements here, I too am tired of all this. We’re getting nowhere. Time to get somewhere.
I’m sure there will be comments and I might… repeat might… join in.
Ken, I think some of the Hillary supporters who now claim in the heat of anger that they won’t vote for Obama may reconsider that notion when they look at what McCain will do as president — he wants more SC justices like Alito and Roberts, which means women’s rights are out the window. He wants more war in Iraq, which means more Americans and Iraqis will die and more of our money will be flushed down the Middle Eastern tubes. Women who think of themselves as feminists might also pause at voting for a man with trouble controlling his temper who called his wife a cunt. There will be those who will cut off their nose to spite their face, but I can’t believe there will be many.
I’m kind of tired of the Obama-Hillary back-and-forth, too, but I think it will soon be over. At the DNC meeting on May 31st, they will likely decide to halve the delegate votes of Michigan and Florida to punish them, as Hillary supporter Terry McAuliffe threatened to do to MI in 2004, and award the votes proportionally, which won’t put Hillary over the top. (Even the full delegate vote from those two states wouldn’t do that.) After the last primary, enough Superdelegates will step forward to back Obama and that should be the end of it. I can’t see any case Hillary would then have to carry on her campaign to the convention floor. I’ll be glad when it’s finally settled.
Actually, she has a case to carry to the convention floor to force herself on the ballot. The delegates pick the VP candidate…not the nominee. Obviously, it has been more and more the pick of the nominee, but she can challenge the delegates on the floor when the VP delegate vote happens.
RS… I’m sure they will: perhaps they already have. Unfortunately I’m not sure the same would be true if the case were exactly reverse (please note I do mean “exactly,” not that she somehow manages to do anything with this given situation. I’d both dread, and be fascinated at, how she managed that Houdini.) But that’s just my perspective from what I gather surfing the net from the most radical of O’Bama supporters. Now m,any of those could also be those very “trolls” that I have previously mentioned, I am willing to admit. The amount of rage always seems far beyond the actual thing they rage against. Could some of this be “collective” rage? Of course, but collecting rage that’s out of proportion is like collecting errors while headed to the moon. Soon you wind up going the opposite: and most dangerous, direction.
I can’t believe McCain and what he said to his wife, but the media has once again proven who they are owned and controlled by through ignoring it.
Here’s my solution to MI/FL: wait until everything is in. I would bet Mel Brook’s brain, which I value more than perhaps God, that my solution would still mean O’Bama gets it once “abandon ship Clinton” is over. (BTW, I think in some cases Bill may be right: some of the abandoners may well be rats who made promises, but nothing absolutely holds any of them to their votes: not even if they decide to switch again. That sucks… but it is what it is.) Wait until it’s over: make a somewhat big issue of this being “punishment,” while allowing them to be counted as it went down during the primaries. Punishment enough because the chance of having any influence on the final outcome will have long since passed. In fact, it may well be somewhat humiliating, but far better then raising the middle finger, or ordering them to stand in some line they didn’t vote to stand in. I’m positive either would have unsettling results when it comes election time.
I know that won’t satisfy those who wish to the punishment to be drastic, but to be fair much of this was not decided by Dems, but by Republican legislatures. “Wanting” to be early, suggesting it be early, or not speaking out against the change really doesn’t count for much, unless you believe we should punish people for what they want or say. I don’t. Bad idea. A Bush-like idea.
As I said: I’m positive it will change nothing. If it would then other options should be considered, but if it could then I think that may be a clear sign support for O’Bama may be weaker than we thought: something we would need to know going into the election.
The only thing I could see Hillary doing is holding on but saying nothing. I’m currently working on something like that I may share. It’s not something I’m actually suggesting: just one possible scenario regarding how it may all play out.
BTW, Don is right. Do I think it will happen? Probably not. This has always been about the right number, not who has more unless it’s 2025 or above. I don’t like that, but “thems the facts.”
DJ’s right. We need some serious changes.