I am going to use my training to offer a bit of optimism for our long-term future here. I still have plenty of distressing things to discuss about our current situation, but at this time, I want to consider what will happen in the not-so-distant future when Donald Trump is finally out of the political picture.

I often see or hear people talking about how Trump has tapped into a strong political current in our society. The belief of people who talk this way, tends to be that this constituency existed before Trump came along, and it will continue to exist afterward. Thus, as the argument goes, it will find another way to express itself when Trump is gone. It will not go away, according to this reasoning; it will somehow be transformed or find another cult leader.

I have already argued that Trump is unique, and that there will not be an adequate replacement for him when he is no longer in politics. Furthermore, I will add here that his support is waning; his untruthfulness, ineffectualness, and most of all, his corruption, as exemplified by the Epstein Files debacle, are becoming such a drag on how the large majority of the public perceives him, that I believe his political standing will not be recoverable.

But all of that is not the core of the problem that his political party faces. Rather, I believe it is that the Republican Party will not be able to recover from Trump. In my estimation, those who argue that the Trump base will simply find a new outlet, are wrong, at least to some extent, and perhaps to a great extent. Instead, Trump is a phenomenon that has created its own political weather, to a large degree, much like the wildfires that are so common here in California, are able to change the weather locally. When the fires are out, however, the weather goes back to its baseline – to relative “normality.”

In social psychology, there is considerable evidence that, for instance, political policies actually tend to change peoples’ attitudes regarding relevant topics. Civil rights laws, reduce racial prejudice, for instance, although it certainly still exists. Anti-smoking laws, causes people to dislike smoking more than they did before, legalized abortion resulted in more people supporting the right to abortion, and so forth. Time after time, opinion polls and even controlled experiments show that peoples’ attitudes are influenced by what they see, hear and read in the society around them, to most often match what they are exposed to. If one thinks about it, this really makes sense as a simple matter of conformity. And yes, nobody likes to admit to being conformist, but when tested, most people are largely conformist. Actually, some kinds of conformity are necessary and good for society to function smoothly. Where would we be without conformity to our rather arbitrary traffic rules, for instance? So yes, people tend to “go with the flow” of whatever laws legislators pass as long as it seems well intentioned. Obeying ICE in its current form, however – or whatever draconian idea the Trump administration is currently pushing — is another matter.

This brings me back to the social milieu that Trump helped to create. Clearly, he did tap into the Fox News mindset that this station, and various conservative hate-talkers on the radio, had spent many years cultivating. However, Trump started the fire that I think, had a multiplying effect on all the preexisting prejudices and misguided opinions – such as right-wing conspiracy theories, anti-science, and anti-education thinking — that these audiences held. He was a catalyst that reinforced these toxic attitudes mightily. In the process, Trump built a political cult centered around himself, aided and abetted by power-hungry Republican politicians.

Once we take away that blowhard that fans those flames of ignorance, the fire will dwindle if not go out completely. It will burn itself out, and I doubt that the Republican Party will be able to recover, especially not after helping to fan those flames and fuel that fire, only to see it burn out of control in the end. They nurtured and protected a person who is a criminal through and through – a thief (the Art of the Deal should have been named The Art of the Steal), a felon, a sexual abuser, a pedophile protector and ally if not one himself, a know-nothing loudmouthed narcissistic miscreant. Republicans will have to live with the consequences of their actions, and it won’t be pretty (or shall I say, Pretti?). As a result, public attitudes will swing toward the progressive, is my guess.

Moving forward without Trump, Republicans will be compelled to change their ways. Personally, I hope that they will fall into political irrelevance, but I suppose that is too much to expect. However, I think it is reasonable to guess that they will for the most part, go back to their more principled, conservative roots, while they spend a lengthy period in the political wilderness as a minority party, much as they did throughout the middle of the 20th Century. It is during that period, that I think we can next make real progress as a society. In fact, I equate this with the resolution of the current Fourth Turning cycle, the 80 or so year cycle for which we are currently at the endpoint. The next big question, is how we can prevent this vicious cycle from repeating. That will take progressive reforms that safeguard out system against billionaire takeovers and the spreading of misinformation, for instance. I believe that our experience over the past several decades will serve us well in making these kinds of reforms.